Note... this post will show as made by Alex Wooden, but it's really by Paul (my invitation to this site expired, so I used his until I can get logged in)
Given the right facts most people can reach a good decision-- The dificulty is gathering the right facts at the right time. Our reading "Evidence-Based Management" probes at this issue and offers several specific guidelines to improve our ability to make better decisions. These are demanding evidence, challenging logic, encouraging experimentation, and practicing inquiry and observation. The purpose of these steps is to recognize that as managers we often have blind spots and incomplete knowledge. Thru the use of evidence-based facts we can improve our chances of making good decisions. However, how do we reconcile the conflict when the evidence presented doesn't fit with our personal experience? When our intuition and opinions are leading us to one decision, and the data points to another-- the information is incomplete and difficult to obtain and the demand for the decison is immediate-- how do you make the call?
When the evidence points one way, and intuition the other, get more opinions. The most diverse teams when well managed are more successful than either poorly managed diverse teams or any homogeneous team, simply because of the diversity of perspective. When Data points in one direction, and the gut in the other, gather more opinions, but be aware that you are not gathering supporting opinions - find the "no-no's" and listen to what they have to say to give yourself a reality check.
ReplyDeleteI think it might have been Katie who reminded us during class that “gut” is not just gut. It is data which has been stored, analyzed, applied and tested over time. I am frustrated by the black and white mindset that “gut” is a data-poor knee-jerk reaction to a whim. It is not.
ReplyDeleteI am not disputing that “She with the data wins”, albeit many great opportunities have been surpassed as a result of analysis paralysis. It was Wayne Gretzky who said “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take”
Perhaps its the trauma nurse in me – Big decisions can be made with small amounts of powerful data (assessment, vital signs, history of incident) that suggests that we need to crack open your chest to cease bleeding or you will die…We don’t wait for the third cardiothoracic surgeon and a data packed spread sheet prior to reacting...
I'm so glad that you are bringing up the other side of the debate. I think that the theoretical work in the area of decision making under stress supports your view that highly trained professionals who need to make fast decisions are highly accurate. They have synthesized the data to such as degree that they can make fast, accurate decisions. On the other hand, you wouldn't want me making those decisions!
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